Aidan's Weather Page

 August 23rd Central Minnesota Weather Discussion  By Aidan Cera   Fig. 1. National Weather Service Twin Cities weather graphic for the next few days weather. Good evening central Minnesota! The last few days have been downright awful in terms of the heat and the humidity. Highs on Tuesday approached 100F with dew points approaching 80F. Today, the stratus deck held on much later in the day which prevented as much solar radiation from warning the surface. Thus, we were cooler in terms of temperatures but still extremely humid. Thankfully, this cooler weather has allowed the excessive heat warnings and heat advisories to expire as I send this post out.  Tonight, we are still looking at a downright warm and humid setup. Lows will likely only get down into the upper to mid 60F's with dew points in that range as well. This will likely lead more ptachy to widespread fog overnight through mid morning on Thursday. This fog will likely burn off mid morning and lead to a stratus deck that w

 August 21st Central Minnesota Weather Discussion by Aidan Cera Fig 1. National Weather Service Twin Cities Heat Wave Graphic for central Minnesota.  The main highlight of this discussion is going to be the heat in the short range, so this discussion is going to be rather quick, but I want to get the message regarding the heat out.  An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for a good chunk of central Minnesota from August 22nd, 11:00 AM CDT until August 23, 10:00 PM CDT. Todd, Morrison and Mille Lacs counties are under a Heat Advisory for the same time as the Excessive Heat Warning.  Heat Indices are going to be very high tomorrow to nearly dangerous levels. The National Weather Service is forecasting heat index values from 97F to 112F or slightly higher across the forecast area. Heat Index values such as these are especially dangerous when spent in for long periods of time. Not only this, but any households or buildings without AC are going to be sweltering in temperatures and dew point

 August 16th Central Minnesota Weather Discussion By Aidan Cera Fig 1. Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook for August 16th 2023 Issued at 1609Z. Good afternoon central Minnesota! Figured I would do a brief discussion on the possibility of severe weather across the region later this afternoon into the evening hours.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a slight risk for severe weather for the central and eastern portion of central Minnesota. All severe modes are possible, including damaging winds (15%), large hail (15%) and tornadoes (2%).  Fig 2. SPC surface analysis as of 1900Z (2:00 PM CDT). Red numbers indicate temperature and green values represent dew points in degrees Fahrenheit. Wind barbs show wind direction. As of around 2 PM CDT, a cold front was located in northwestern Minnesota and into southeastern North Dakota based on surface wind obs and pressure tendencies. This cold front is quickly advecting southeastward as the afternoon progresses and should arrive

 August 10th Central Minnesota *Special* Weather Discussion By Aidan Cera Fig 1. Current Radar for the Upper Midwest as of 9:00 PM CST.  This is a special weather discussion for central Minnesota concerning a powerful line of thunderstorms that are tracking across western Minnesota and are heading toward central Minnesota. None of these storms are severe as of right now, however, I do want to bring attention to them as they could become severe over the next few hours as they track through the area.  Fig 2. NWS Twin Cities Severe Thunderstorm Watch valid until 2:00 AM CDT.  A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the following central Minnesota counties: Pope, Kandiyohi, Renville, Sibley, McLeod, Meeker and Stearns. Again, this watch will remain in effect until 2:00 AM CDT. The primary concerns are large hail up to ping pong ball size, winds up to 70 mph and frequent lightning.  These storms are currently making their way into Pope and Douglas counties as of 9:00 PM CDT, and wil

 August 8th Central Minnesota Weather Discussion By Aidan Cera  Fig 1. Storm Prediction Center Mesoanalysis valid 2200 UTC.  Good afternoon central Minnesota. Not much has changed with how the weather looks for the forecast period with regards to temperature but there have been some adjustments to our precipitation chances through late week.  Currently, there is a cold front extending down from Canada across northern Minnesota and through central North Dakota based on pressure, wind and temperature trends over the last few hours. Fig 2. Current visible satellite and radar imagery courtesy of College of DuPage Weather.  https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-N_Plains-02-24-1-100-1&checked=radar-map&colorbar=undefined We can also see the cold front on satellite and radar, with showers and thunderstorms developing out ahead of it across northern Minnesota into central North Dakota. These showers and thunderstorms will likely begin weakening after we loss daytime heating

 August 7th Central Minnesota Weather Discussion By Aidan Cera  Fig 1. Climate Prediction Center U.S. Drought Monitor valid August 1, 2023.  Another week has gone by, and the drought only continues to grow across Minnesota and the Midwest as a whole. What seemed to be a promising rain this weekend fell apart on us, not all that surprisingly, and I really don't see any legit change of much rain in the coming days or weeks as we wrap up the final few weeks of the driest or one of the driest summers on record across central Minnesota. Unfortunately I suspect this is going to become the new normal as oceans and the poles continue to warm weakening the temperature gradient between the tropics and the poles, making it more difficult to come by potent synoptic scale systems that bring us more widespread rain. Going forward I think it will be reasonable to expect severe drought every summer from here on out.  If there is any good news, it is that temperatures are expected to be slightly co