August 21st Central Minnesota Weather Discussion

 August 21st Central Minnesota Weather Discussion

by Aidan Cera


Fig 1. National Weather Service Twin Cities Heat Wave Graphic for central Minnesota. 

The main highlight of this discussion is going to be the heat in the short range, so this discussion is going to be rather quick, but I want to get the message regarding the heat out. 

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for a good chunk of central Minnesota from August 22nd, 11:00 AM CDT until August 23, 10:00 PM CDT. Todd, Morrison and Mille Lacs counties are under a Heat Advisory for the same time as the Excessive Heat Warning. 

Heat Indices are going to be very high tomorrow to nearly dangerous levels. The National Weather Service is forecasting heat index values from 97F to 112F or slightly higher across the forecast area. Heat Index values such as these are especially dangerous when spent in for long periods of time. Not only this, but any households or buildings without AC are going to be sweltering in temperatures and dew points as high as they are expected to be. 

A warm front is currently draped to the south of Minnesota and is going to be pushing north night and tomorrow. Thanks to the incredibly strong ridge to our southwest, sinking air will squash any potential thunderstorm development along this boundary for most of the area. I cannot rule out a stray severe thunderstorm in our northern counties further away from the ridge and closer to the moisture channel associated with the remnants of Hurricane Hillary circumnavigating the high. The only severe weather threat would be large hail. 

Heading into tomorrow, heat indices above 100F overspread the area. In fact, given the environmental conditions and model output for tomorrow, I would not be shocked if we do manage to reach 100F tomorrow in some areas. If such a feat is achieved, then we have ourselves a solid record high temperature. While I am not explicitly 100F since it is so rare in this part of the country, I do want to highlight that it is possible. 

I think we may be slightly cooler on Wednesday, but it is still going to be very hot with heat indices approaching or exceeding 100F. Night time lows will likely not dip much past 70F. 

No doubt it will be hot, so here is the bottom line I want to stress. Be mindful of the heat. Drink plenty of water regardless of whether you are outside and exercising or not. If you do not have AC, utilize any fans you have to keep a healthy air current going throughout your home. Make sure you know where heat shelters are if your home becomes too hot for you to tolerate for longer periods of time during the day. Sleep with as few blankets as possible and wear loose fitting clothes. But most importantly...again, drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion or heat stroke. 

Cooler weather arrives by Thursday and Friday, with highs on Thursday being in the upper 80F's to lower 80F's for highs by Friday. 

Stay safe out there folks, and check back with the NWS on the latest on the heat the next 2 days.

 












Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Flood Watches In Effect, Multiple Storm Rounds Next Few Days

Image
 06/21/24 Southeastern Wisconsin Weather Outlook Aidan Cera Good morning southeastern Wisconsin. I apologize for not making many posts this week, schedule has been fairly busy with preparing to move back up to Minnesota here shortly.  As the title says, a Flood Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service office of Milwaukee for portions of southeastern Wisconsin. The counties in this watch include Waukesha, Washington, Fond Du Lac, Dodge and Jefferson Counties. This watch runs until tomorrow, Saturday June 22nd 7:00 PM CDT. Keeping an close eye on the weather the next 24-36 hrs will be important if you plan on traveling or have any outdoor plans. Excessive rainfall will certainly be possible during this time window, and if any flooding near rivers is likely or may happen, exercise caution around these areas in case flooding does indeed occur. Keep tabs on the National Weather Service of Milwaukee and the information they put out via their website, X(formerly Twitter...
Read more

Rain For A Day Then Sun For A Day On Repeat

Image
 Central Minnesota Weather Discussion 04/30/24 by Aidan Cera Rain Rolls Through Tonight  Good evening central Minnesota! Hope you are having success at dodging those drops that are coming down at quite a clip at times. This rain is part of a extensive band of showers and thunderstorms stretching nearly from Canada all the way down to Mexico! These showers and storms will continue to make their way eastward through the evening as a negatively tilted shortwave trough moves east as well. Thinking there will be a seperate broken line of storms that will develop behind this first round of rain given remaining instability and moisture but not everyone will see this rain.                  Personal photo of altcomulus clouds being churned by gravity waves rippling across the atmosphere from nearby rain activity.  Skies should clear out as the night progresses, with lows falling into the mid 40ºF's for most of centra...
Read more

Father's Day Central Minnesota Weather Update

Image
Central Minnesota June 18th Wx Update by Aidan Cera  Figure 1. NEXRAD Base Reflectivity for central Minnesota on June 18 2023 at 1420Z CDT.  WE HAD RAIN THIS MORNING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! After weeks of no rain, we finally saw some light but very beneficial rainfall across most of central Minnesota this morning. The rain has since come to an end, but there have been some widely scattered heavy showers across Kandiyohi and Sherburne counties but most places have not been touched by these hit or miss cells.    Figure 2. Weather Prediction Center 1800Z surface analysis for June 18 2023. In terms of surface analysis, we are still in the vicinity of a surface low to the south which is providing just enough lift to spark off those widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This low is going to gradually weaken and drift east as the rest of today progresses into tonight. A good deal of cloud cover is expected to stick around behind the low as low level...
Read more