Beautiful Weather Ahead!

 Central Minnesota Weather Discussion 05/10/2024

By Aidan Cera 

Good afternoon central Minnesota! It has been and will most likely continue to be an absolutely beautiful day outside with plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the 70ºF's! It is a bit breezy out there though, with winds shifting to the NW as a weak cold front passes through the area. There will be a small chance of an afternoon thunderstorm or too, but nothing widespread by any means.

 Looking out the window right now, we have winds shifting to more of a northwest direction as a cold front currentling passing over the Twin Cities makes its way through. A cumulus field is beginning to develop behind this cold front and make its way southward (can see a few fair weather cumulus outside my window as I type this). These cumulus will stick around for the rest of the day and may become more agitated as the day progresses and daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere. There might be just enough destabilization for a few of these cumulus cloud clusters to grow into a thunderstorm or two later this afternoon, especially in our northern and eastern counties closer to the low pressure and forcing.  

 

The Storm Prediction Center has included a small portion of central Minnesota in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms today, owing to the potential for some fairly gust winds topping 50 mph with some of the storms. This threat is most likely reserved for our eastern counties such as Benton, Sherburne, Wright, eastern Stearns and Morrison counties. Again I want to emphasize though that the storm chance itself is very small (20%-30%), and that any afternoon/evening plans folks have outdoors today should be fine (70%-80%) of the time. 

Winds will continue to be gusty today behind the cold front and low pressure passing by to our northeast, with winds between 15 to 20 mph, gusting to over 30 mph at times. Temperatures will be amazing, with highs in the upper 60ºF's for our northern counties, near 70ºF for central counties and low 70ºF's for our southern counties. 

As we head more into the evening hours and loss that daytime heating, what little storm chance we have will quickly fade with the sunset. Temperatures will cool down to the mid to upper 40ºF's across all of central Minnesota, with winds calming down after sunset as well. Skies will clear as we further loss that daytime heating allow for a starry night. 

 

As on topic of tonight, there is a VERY good chance at seeing some absolutely dazzling northern lights displays, as a severe geomagnetic storm makes it's way past Earth! The Aurora could be seen as far south as Alabama and Texas, so once you get out of city light pollution, you should have no issues seeing some amazing northern lights displays, potentially right overhead! 

Warmer and Sunnier Weekend

The weather for this weekend looks absolutely FANTASTIC across central Minnesota. The cold front passing through today will not impede on even warming air making its way into our area tomorrow, with highs in the low 70ºF's for our northern counties, mid to upper 70ºF's in our central counties, and upper 70ºF's to lower 80ºF's even for our southern counties. Skies will be sunny as well given the high pressure system passing through our area. Winds will also be lighter out of the WNW between 5 to 10 mph for most of central Minnesota, with breezier winds in our northern counties, potentially gusting up to 20 mph. 

Skies will be clear Saturday Night, with lows dropping into the mid 50ºF's across central Minnesota. Winds will be slightly breezier the further north you go, but overall a rather tranquil night and mild. 

Sunday looks to be mostly a repeat of today, plenty of sunshine with just enough destabilization in the afternoon to spark off a few widely scattered thunderstorms. The chances increase the further east and north you are, very similar to today's potential. Once you get into our southern and western counties, the chance is almost 0% at this time. Even for our eastern and northern counties, chances are low (only about 30%). Highs will be quite warm, pushing 80ºF across most of if not all of central Minnesota, with highs in the mid 80ºF's in our central and southern counties thanks to all the forecasted sunshine. With the low and cold front passing through to our northeast, winds will increase for everyone again, with winds from the W eventually shifting NW behind the front between 15 to 20 mph. Gusts could very well once again top 30 mph, especially further north and east you go. 

Cooler Next Week With Better Rain Chances Come Mid Week

Cooler temperatures look to arrive early next week after the cold front passage on Sunday. Highs will likely struggle to reach above the mid 60ºF's for basically all central Minnesota. Tuesday really doesn't look much different either, only slightly warmer, with a chance at hitting 70ºF in our southwestern counties, but the remainder of our counties staying the mid 60ºF's. 

We will see plenty of sunshine, however, on Monday and Tuesday which will help it feel warmer than the thermometer shows when standing in the sun, so really not bad at all. I really do not think we will warm things up all that much heading into mid week however, as it seems our next chance of widespread rain going into Wednesday will keep a nice lid on our temperatures escaping the mid 60ºF's. Too far out to speculate how much rain will fall and what portion of central Minnesota has the best chance of seeing rain, but it will be something to monitor as we progress through the weekend and into early next week. 

Get out and enjoy the sunshine today and this weekend folks! Enjoy the warmer temperatures as well, and if you get caught in a spotty shower or storm, it will be very brief. Check on your local NWS office website and radar for latest information and weather updates. Have a fantastic day central Minnesota!