Summer Like Weather Begins to Dominate

 06/12/2024 Southeastern Wisconsin Weather Outlook

Aidan Cera

    It has been a much warmer day across southeastern Wisconsin today. Temperatures have climbed well into the 80ºF's and even have reached 90ºF in some locations despite increasing high level cloud cover as the afternoon has gone on. Dew points really haven't crept up much yet as expected across our area, but much more humid air is lurking just off to our west, so it is only a matter of time before we start seeing those 60ºF's dews across our area. 

    Our sunshine from earlier today has been masked by a good deal of cirrus cloud activity associated with a complex of thunderstorms that developed across western Minnesota earlier this morning and has been progressing southeastward throughout the day. These storms are currently passing into western Wisconsin, with some of these storms being severe warned for damaging winds. 

 

    There is considerable uncertainty in whether or not this complex of storms will reach southeastern Wisconsin this evening. Forcing is not all that great given the growing distance from the cold front that sparked it this morning. Environmental analysis shows that this storm cluster is entirely cold pool driven, so has essentially turned into its own small cold front. This may allow the storms to persist past what is currently expected. However, the lack of moisture in the air compared to locations off to our west raises the question of just how well these storms can hold together east of the I-39 corridor. I would certainly not be surprised if portions of our area, especially Jefferson, Dodge and Walworth counties, see some shower and thunderstorm activity later this evening. I would not expect any severe weather with these storms, as they will likely be falling apart as they track through the area assuming they make it here. If you have any plans this evening outdoors I would keep an eye on the radar. Conditions and models say this system will be long gone by the time is passes through, but complexes like these are notorious for sticking around longer than expected, so would NOT right off showers and thunderstorms later this evening. 

    Heading into the overnight hours, our temperatures are likely not going to dip below 67ºF for majority of the area. In fact, some locations may not even dip below 70ºF as that rich, moist air makes its way in from the west. Models are hinting at another potential round of decaying showers and thunderstorms very late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Odds are portions of our area may see a little bit of rain from whatever is left of the storms expected to fire across northern and central Minnesota over the next few hours, but again, nothing severe is currently expected.

 

    Tomorrow is a low confidence day. The Storm Prediction Center has kept the severe thunderstorm risk mostly to our south and along the Illinois/Wisconsin state line. Model output suggests other possibilities, however. Again, there is that chance for a few early morning showers and storms. This activity will likely have a major influence on the progression of the cold front throughout the day tomorrow. Most models agree that the cold front will track through long before maximum daytime heating can take affect and mix our the capping inversion, thus promoting thunderstorm development. In short, most models show us not seeing any afternoon storms across southeastern Wisconsin tomorrow. There are a few outlier scenarios, however, that have a slower cold progression and therefore a better chance of storms early tomorrow afternoon. 

    Odds favor a dry day tomorrow still, but what happens tonight will play a major role in what happens tomorrow, so keeping a slight chance of a few afternoon storms for out southern counties tomorrow. Temperatures will remain quite warm with dew points near 70ºF prior to the cold front passing through. Once the cold front arrives, dew points will drop back into the 50ºF's and 60ºF's by tomorrow night, with temperatures dropping into the low 60ºF's to upper 50ºF's across most of the area. 

    By Friday morning, the heat and mugginess, as well as the clouds, will be gone. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 70ºF's across the area, with cooler temperatures lakeside and warmer temps inland. Some locations may reach 80ºF further out west, but the humidity will allow these temperatures to remain comfortable. Saturday is the same story, with sunshine and temperatures hanging around the mid to upper 70ºF's. 

    Once we get into Sunday, the temperatures are going rise quickly to around 90ºF once again, with soupy dew points in the upper 60ºF's to lower 70ºF's. The jet stream will set up shop across northern Minnesota and southern Canada through much of next week it seems, which will keep all the precipitation chances well to our north more likely than not. Therefore, it looks like a muggy, hot and sunny forecast through most of next week at this point. Once we get past Tuesday though, uncertainty increases greatly so things may change yet, so it will be important to keep an eye on the forecast for any chances of storms that may pop up. 

    Overall, hit or miss chances of storms over the next 36 hours or so, with cooler temps to end the week and start the weekend, with hot and humid, yet dry, conditions returning for next week. 

Southeastern Wisconsin's Forecast Summary 

Wednesday Night

              

 Intervals of cloudiness with scattered showers and t-storms possible. Lows ranging from the upper 60ºF's to low 70ºF's. Winds SW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of t-storms 50%. 

Thursday 

             

Partly sunny skies, with a few scattered t-storms possible in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 80ºF's. Winds SW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of t-storms 40%.

Thursday Night

            

Partly cloudy skies. A stray evening shower or t-storm is possible. Lows in the upper 50ºF's to lower 60ºF's. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of t-storms 20%. 

Friday 

             

Mostly sunny skies. Cooler and less humid. Highs in the mid to upper 70ºF's. Winds NW->NE at 5 mph. 

Friday Night 

             

Clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the low to mid 50ºF's. Winds NE at 5 mph. 

Saturday 

             

Partly cloudy skies. Highs in the mid 70ºF's. SE winds 5 to 10 mph.