Severe Storms Tonight, Hot/Humid Tuesday, Then Pleasant by Midweek

 06/24/24 Southeastern Wisconsin Weather Outlook

The weather pattern we have been in as of late has been relentless. The entire Upper Midwest has seen continuous rainstorms, severe thunderstorm outbreaks, and as of the last week, heat and humidity. We do have a few days coming up where we will have a break here across southeastern Wisconsin, but it doesn't look like it will last long. 

 

Currently, there is a warm front making its way across Wisconsin, with no precipitation associated with it, but some mid level and low level clouds. The skies are expected to remain mostly sunny to partly cloudy the remainder of today and into the first half of tonight. High temperatures are expected to top out around 80ºF across much of southeastern Wisconsin before the lake breeze passes through and cools us down. Dew points should remain relatively capped as will at least until the warm front passes through and we see a more southerly shift in the winds. 

Tonight there is a lot of uncertainty regarding tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms across most of southeastern Wisconsin, with the primary severe weather threats being damaging winds, flooding and a few tornadoes. There are a lot of questions regarding this severe possibility, however. The first is where these storms develop. Models vary on this question significantly. The second question is where do these storms track after they develop? This again is not well handled by the models.  

Most models agree that storms will fire somewhere across central or eastern Minnesota later this afternoon into the evening hours. But again, the exact location of where these storms form will influence where they track, and if they form in central Minnesota versus southern Minnesota, this will alter the downstream track and thus whether we see the storms here in SE WI or not. The latest computer model runs have backed off on much SE WI seeing much at all and instead keep the storm activity north (HRRR, FV3-HiRes) across Sheboygan and Fond du Lac counties. Other models, such as the NAMNST bring a bowing line across all of southern Wisconsin. Given these trends, thinking a decrease in storm chances is in order for areas souther and just north of I-94. This is something we will need to continue to monitor though over the next several hours. 

Again, damaging winds are going to be the main threat. Gusts could top 65-75 mph in some storms. These storms will also be tracking through early tomorrow morning, between 1AM to 3AM so it will be important to take any precautions before going to bed tonight. Given the high amount of uncertainty with this forecast, there really isn't much more I can say about it until there is better agreement and that will likely not happen till late tonight and may require another forecast discussion later. 

Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60ºF or hang out right around 70ºF with dew points on the rise as the warm front passes through. 

 Tomorrow is going to be a steamy day out there across the area. High temperatures are likely to be flirting with 90ºF and with dew points nearing 70ºF before the cold front arrives tomorrow afternoon. This will be a quiet cold front fortunately, with limited shower and storm chances until you get south of the WI/IL border. Once the cold front passes through, we will FINALLY get a much needed and more long duration break from heat and humidity through the remainder of the workweek. Lows will be more comfortable Tuesday night, in the low to mid 60ºF's with falling dew points. 

Wednesday and Thursday look beautiful. Plenty of sunshine with highs in the low to mid 70ºF's across all of SE WI (cooler near the lake). Rain chances will hold off for the most part during this period, although I would not be surprised if I have to introduce a rain chance Wednesday due to an upper level disturbance making its way through. 

Heading toward the end of the week, rain chances return, especially Friday afternoon into the evening hours. I do not expect any severe weather with this feature at this time, but as always with this time of year, it will need to be watched. Things look to clear out next weekend, especially on Sunday, but Saturday is still a bit of a question in terms of how early the rain can clear out. 

The bottom line: pleasant today if not on the warmer side, with severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds possible later tonight. Heat and humidity arrive tomorrow but are quickly whisked away by a passing cold front Tuesday afternoon. Pleasant, sunny and less humidity arrives for Wednesday and Thursday, witha. return of shower chances for the end of the the week. 

Forecast Summary

Monday

             

Mostly sunny skies. Highs in the upper 70ºF's to lower 80ºF's. Winds E at 5 mph. 

Monday Night

            

Mostly clear before midnight, then severe t-storms possible after midnight. Lows in the upper 60ºF's to around 70ºF. Winds SE shifting SW at 5 to 15 mph. Some storms may contain damaging winds and tornadoes. Rainfall totals around 0.25"-0.5". Chance of t-storms 50%.

Tuesday

             

Partly sunny skies. A stray shower or t-storm is possible in the morning. Highs in the mid to upper 80ºF's. Winds SW shifting NW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of t-storms 20%. 

Tuesday Night

             

Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Lows in the low to mid 60ºF's. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. 

 Wednesday 

            

Partly sunny skies. A stray shower is possible. Highs in the mid to upper 70ºF's. N winds around 5 to 10 mph. 

Wednesday Night

            

Mostly clear skies. Lows in the low to mid 50ºF's. Winds NE around 5 mph.