Warmer Temperatures Arrive in Time For Meteorological Summer

 05/30/24 Weather Outlook Southeastern Wisconsin

Aidan Cera

The last 2 days have been absolutely fantastic across southeastern Wisconsin, with plenty of sunshine, pleasant temperatures yet rather chilly nights! Lows across southeastern Wisconsin dipped as low as the mid 30ºF's near West Bend, WI and across our Kettle Moraine areas, which is quite remarkable for this time of year. 

 

Taking a look at satellite and station plot data, there is not a cloud to be found across the skies of southeastern Wisconsin this afternoon courtesy of high pressure being almost directly overhead. Winds are also very light out of the east which has allowed that lake breeze to kick in as expected. Temperatures are generally in the mid 60ºF's near the lakeshore, with low 70ºF's inland out near Watertown, WI. 

Looking further to the west, there are some high cirrus type clouds gradually making their way east as we progress through the afternoon. These clouds are associated with a negatively tilted trough over western Canada pushing eastward. Not to worry though, these clouds won't harm us any or bring rain, but they will prevent our temperatures from dipping as low as they did last night. 

Thanks to high pressure, our winds will remain relatively calm tonight, with temperatures cooling down into the mid 40ºF's overall. Tomorrow we will still see plenty of sunshine as showers and storms remain out to the west. Highs will be a decent bit warmer tomorrow thanks to the approaching area of low pressure drawing heat and moisture northward. Highs will likely be in the mid 70ºF's across most of southeastern Wisconsin, with lakeshore communities a little cooler with highs in the low 70ºF's before the lake breeze kicks in. Lows tomorrow night are not expected to drop all that much, only into the mid 60ºF's largely due to increasing cloud cover.

Precipitation chances do increase slightly as we head into the day on Saturday, but it really does not look as if there will be much of a chance at seeing rain for a majority of southeastern Wisconsin. Best chances of rain will likely be close to the WI/IL border due to these folks being closer to the low itself and better forcing, along with less low and mid level dry air to mix out. By Saturday afternoon, rain chances should come to an end and dry weather returns for the remainder of this weekend. Sunday looks great and warmer, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 70ºF's across the area, with even a few 80ºF's likely!

 

Heading into early next week, things certainly look more active again in terms of shower and thunderstorm chances. The best chance as of now appears to be on Monday, when a small rippled in the jet stream to our north moves downstream across Upper Michigan and is equipped with sustainiac moisture. An early look does not show shear profiles that suggests severe weather as of yet, but there certainly will be enough energy for thunderstorm development. Therefore, I would say Monday is our next best chance at more widespread precipitation.

Heading deeper into next week, especially Tuesday through Thursday, there will be conditional storm chances. These chances will be dependent on what time of day the frontal system passes through and how quickly is passes through the upper midwest. Models differ on the speed of this system passing through, with the GFS cruising the system through by Wednesday afternoon, while the ECMWF has the system passing through at a much slower clip. The ECMWF has a more significant chance of storms going through Wednesday unlike the GFS, and even keeps some residual showers in the area through Thursday. As a result, this is a period of significant uncertainty, but as the event approaches we will get a better idea of what it will look like in terms of timing of storm chances and if there will even be chances.


Bottom Line: Beautiful weather for Friday and warmer with highs in the low to mid 70º's, a small chance of rain on Saturday morning, especially south of Milwaukee with highs in the mid 60ºF's. The rest of the weekend looks great with even warmer temps for Sunday, with early week storms and the potential for more storms throughout next week.  

 

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