Rinse and Repeat Today, Drier Weather To Carry the Rest of the Week

 05/28/24 Weather Outlook Southeastern Wisconsin

 

It has been a beautiful start to today across southeastern Wisconsin this morning, with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures. We have already warmed into the low to mid 60ºF's lakeside, with slightly cooler temperatures inland where more clouds have been hanging around this morning. 

 

 Skies are fairly clear across most of southeastern Wisconsin this morning, with perhaps a slight increase in the cloud cover across our northern counties. We have a few upper level clouds streaming in from the west associated with an upper level disturbance swinging through. This disturbance is also kicking off some rain showers across eastern Iowa and Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin currently. 

As we progress through today, an upper level disturbance currently located over Duluth with slide across Wisconsin. This disturbance is expected to provide plenty of forcing for vertical motions today. Moisture profiles are not all that impressive, but given the band of showers to the west, there is obviously enough moisture to kick a precipitation event. Also with plenty of sunshine for destabilization across southeastern Wisconsin, there likely will be enough energy for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. All mesoscale models as well as the global models show scattered storm development taking place this afternoon as well, which increases confidence in storm chances later today. 

The SPC has issued a marginal risk of severe weather for southeastern Wisconsin for this afternoon. They highlight the risk for hail and damaging winds. While I personally do not expect any storms too severe, I do think that the morning sun and heating we are seeing does increase the chance for seeing larger hail this afternoon thanks to higher energy available (CAPE). Strong downdraft winds may also occur in those stronger storms. It is not likely that everyone will see storms today, but I do expect them to be more numerous than yesterday given the upper level disturbance passing overhead. 

Expected reflectivity later this afternoon by the HRRR. The HRRR is the most bullish model in thunderstorm development this afternoon, and is probably overdoing the precipitation, but captures the idea of more widespread storm development well. 

Highs today look to exceed highs forecasted, seeing as we are already in the low to mid 60ºF's and have at least another hour or two of sun. Highs will likely approach 70ºF in some areas, especially closer to the lake since northwest winds will keep the lakebreeze on the other side of the lake. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be around through the evening but decrease in coverage once the sun goes down and we lose daytime heating. Clouds will also gradually decrease which should allow lows to cool off just a tad more than they did last night, with lows generally in the low 50ºF's, perhaps dipping just below 50ºF for our westerly and northwestern counties. 

Tomorrow is the beginning of a drier weather pattern that may last quite some time. A ridge of high pressure will begin building to our west, which will gradually work it's way our way at the surface through the remainder of the week. Temperatures are generally going to struggle to warm appreciably in terms of daytime highs until the weekend, but temperatures in the sun will be perfect!

Wednesday through Friday will feature mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the low to mid 60ºF's, with the cooler temps lakeside and warmer temps inland. Friday we begin warming into the 70ºF's for our inland counties at the very least, with perhaps cooler temperatures lakeside thanks to the lake breeze (mid 60ºF's). 

 As we approach the weekend, uncertainty increases in the forecast in terms of precipitation chances. Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to swing by to the north and northwest of Wisconsin this next weekend with decent moisture return. Odds are showers and storms will be around the western and northern part of the state and especially off in Minnesota and Iowa. The question is will these showers and storms make it into eastern Wisconsin? Models have been back on forth on when and if any of this precipitation makes its way into our area. Model trends as of recently say no real precipitation threat ever arrives in our area as both these systems pass through, but given the range of this disturbance time frame wise, it is too early to make any solid calls at this point. 

One thing that is certain is that warmer temperatures are expected to overspread the area. It seems that mid 70ºF's will certainly make their appearance here thanks to southerly flow ahead of each system. Beginning of the next week looks even warmer, with the potential for 80ºF's in the area. Precipitation chances are anyone's guess this far out, as well as temperatures in all honesty. 

Today's bottom line: showers and storms develop this afternoon, with sunnier weather to close the week and gradually warming high temperatures as we approach the weekend. The weekend itself will feature 70ºF's for highs for most of our areas with perhaps a slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms throughout. 

Make sure to dodge any of those drops today folks, and have a fantastic day! Happy Tuesday!