Winter Storm Potential Discussion

A Powerful Winter Storm On the Horizon(?)

03/22/2024

by Aidan Cera

Good evening central Minnesota, future undergraduate meteorologist Aidan Cera here with your latest weather discussion regarding the potential for a potent winter storm to impact our area over the next few days.

A Look Back At Last Night's Snowfall

An Alberta Clipper type winter storm made it's way across the Upper Midwest yesterday and brought a fairly decent amount of snow to central Minnesota. The heaviest totals noted were along a very narrow corridor starting in southeastern Pope County extending almost due east just south of St. Cloud, MN and into northwestern WI. Most locations received at least 2 inches of snow, with the highest amounts being 8" where the narrow, heavy band tracked. 

While much of the snow did melt today, overall it was MUCH needed, as most of Minnesota is still in a moderate to severe drought carrying over from last summer and the lack of any significant precipitation since December of 2023. 

Most forecasts underestimated the amount of snowfall for portions of central Minnesota. It is very difficult to predict where heavy bands of snow will develop such as the one we saw yesterday, therefore they are often overlooked in snow forecasts. Regardless, the snow was much needed, and lucky for us, we have the potential to see plenty more over the 3-4 days.

The Coming Storm (A General Look)

This section will be geared more toward the general crowd and will contain less of the technical terms that are often thrown around in the meteorological field, and will primarily focus on timing and type of precipitation expected and amounts. 

Current satellite imagery shows a large area of disturbed weather making it's way over the Rocky Mountains, the western United States and onto the U.S. West Coast. This area of energy will continue to advance east across the mountains over the next day or so, and will help set the stage for the development of an area of low pressure in Colorado tomorrow. 

As the low develops over Colorado, unsettled weather will quickly begin to advance eastward well ahead of the low itself. In regards to Minnesota, southern winds bringing moisture northward ahead of the low will provide enough forcing for snow showers to begin developing over the southwestern part of the state as early as Saturday late afternoon. This will not be the main event, and expected snow totals from any snow that falls late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening will be light. 

As the night progresses, the low pressure system over Colorado will begin tracking northeastward and begin to rapidly deepen. A warm front is eventually expected to begin developing well to our southwest and start moving in our direction, yet a widespread area of snow will vastly proceed this front. By Sunday late morning into early afternoon, snow should begin to overspread a majority of Minnesota. Snow is expected to be heavy at times, with 1"-2" per hour snowfall rates expected at times. Blowing snow will also be a concern as strong winds associated with warm temperatures being brought north by the warm front work their way into the area as well. 

GFS expected reflectivity for Sunday March 24th, 1PM CST. 

Snow, heavy at times, is expected to continue through Sunday night as the warm front gradually lifts north. Projected snow totals during the day Sunday through Sunday night are quite remarkable, ranging anywhere from 6" as a low end amount up to 14" as a high end amount. 

This snow is expected to start more fluffy in nature, but as we head into Sunday night and early Monday morning, snow will acquire a more heavy, wet consistency. This will make it very difficult to shovel, and it is strongly advised that frequent breaks are taken, while shoveling to prevent health complications such as heart attacks from overwork. 

As we head into the day on Monday, things become more murky. The warm front is expected to lift through central Minnesota by Monday afternoon, bringing much warmer air northward into the southern part of the state. These warmer temperatures could very well lead to a transition to a more wintry mix in our southernmost counties and even some rain. This transition will make travel conditions very messy, as significant snow melt will likely result leading to very slushy roads.

GFS expected reflectivity for Monday, March 25th 1PM CST.

The difficult part of this forecast though, is determining just how far north the warm front will reach. Some model solutions show the warm front staying in our southern counties while others show the warm front making it's way much further north seeing an eventual change to rain for almost everyone across central Minnesota. These differences in solutions will likely continue until the low itself has materialized and is tracking our way. 

Once we see a transition to a more liquid form of precipitation (assuming it happens), a dry slot will work it's way around the center of the low pressure and across central Minnesota during the day on Monday into Monday evening. This should make for a break in whatever type of precipitation we are seeing across a decent chunk of Minnesota. The further northwest you are, however, the less of a break you will probably get, along with more snow as shown below from the National Weather Service of Chanhassen, MN. 

Eventually snow will likely overspread all of central Minnesota again after the low passes through. Colder air will be brought into the region as well, which will lead to a transition back to snow by later Monday Night into Tuesday morning based on current model guidance. An additional decent amount of snow will be possible with this snow, as it will be more long duration and could stick around through Tuesday Night. 

When all is said and done, there is a fairly decent chance that most of central Minnesota could receive around 1' of snow from this system. It is not too often that we see snow events such as these, and with a winter like the one we have had, this is almost hard to believe. While yes, it is the end of March and yes, it is a lot of snow, we desperately need it across all of Minnesota if we are to have a chance at easing some of the crippling drought conditions before summer begins.

Now on to impacts: A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of central Minnesota from Sunday morning through Monday morning at the very least. Expect hazardous travel conditions out on the roads, as blowing snow will likely reduce visibilities. Snow on the road ways will lead to slippery conditions, therefore it will be important to allow yourself extra time to get to any location you need to get to safely. Expect roads to be messy from Sunday morning through Tuesday afternoon at the very least. Again, this could be a very prolonged snow event, and therefore it will be important to check back with your local NWS office for the latest details on what will be an ever evolving situation. The details discussed in this forecast are subject to change, so it will be important to stay up to date on any changes!