June 28th Central Minnesota Wx Discussion

 Central Minnesota June 28th Wx Discussion

By Aidan Cera

There have been quite a few changes in the forecast since last night so I am sorta glad I decided to put another weather discussion out before later today. 

The syntopic pattern remains the same, a shortwave trough is advecting across Minnesota with a weak cold front accompanying it. Some broad ascent is currently aiding in shower and thunderstorm development near Lake Millacs up toward Duluth. This line of showers and storms will likely remain the main forcing area throughout the day which means the bulk of the forcing is already passing through or to the east. Considering this, I have decided to really lower those thunderstorm chances for this afternoon or completely take them out of the forecast altogether. In fact, it seems the counties with any remaining chance of storms is Benton, Milacs, Sherburne, Wright and Carver counties as that boundary makes its way through. Most mesoscale models however do not show much in terms of convective initiation until the boundary reaches western Wisconsin. 

As of a result of this, the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the slight risk of severe thunderstorms to the east into Wisconsin. A marginal risk of severe weather is in place for the counties listed above in central Minnesota, with the primary hazards being large hail and gusty winds with any stronger thunderstorms that may develop. 

Fig 1. NWS Twin Cities severe weather graphic for Wednesday June 28th. 

Overall, central Minnesota is the in the clear for any significant severe weather or precipitation altogether in my opinion today, with the severe risks remaining west and east. Central Minnesota certainly has a pattern of being sandwiched between weather events and getting the low end of the stick this year. 

Highs today range significantly. Brainerd is sitting at 63F as of 1846Z with Wilmar approaching 80F with more sunshine. This range is due to the areas that just got done seeing rain such as Brainerd and Crow Wing county and Kandiyohi and Renville counties not seeing much for precipitation today and seeing more sun. Highs will range between the lower 70Fs to lower 80Fs most likely. The further south you are the warmer you will be is the moral of the story. Winds will be out of the S at 5 to 15 mph shifting to WNW once the cold front rolls through. 

Fig 2. NWS Twin Cities alert map. Note that all of Minnesota is in an Air Quality Alert through midnight tonight. 

Unfortunately, we traded the severe weather chance for the hazardous air quality. Yep, the Canadian wildfire smoke has returned and with a vengeance today. All of Minnesota is currently in an air quality alert as that smoke makes its way to the surface. Widespread haze is expected into tonight as a result, with dangerous air quality levels not only hazardous to those who have underlying health conditions but the general population. If you can limit outdoor expose or just not go outside at all, that would be your best bet. Wearing a mask wouldn't be a bad idea either if you have to go outside and do some work. 

The rest of the forecast generally remains unchanged. Heading into tonight I cannot rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm especially in our eastern counties as that weak cold front makes its way through. Lows will fall in the lower to mid 60Fs with a light NW winds diminishing after midnight. Tomorrow a slight chance of showers and storms returns as a secondary cold front tracks through from the northwest. Highs will be quite warmer with everybody reaching into the mid to upper 80Fs. Fortunately the haze should be out of the area by this time thanks to the northwest wind kicking in tonight. 

Still looking at a dry end of the week into the weekend with a chance of the smoke returning Saturday. Chance of storms doesn't return till the beginning of next week as multiple shortwave troughs look to make their way through. 

The general 48-hr central Minnesota forecast is posted below. Stay safe out there today everyone and have a fantastic Wednesday!