October 2nd-8th

 A Look at the Week Ahead

 

Aidan Cera, October 2nd


As we head into the first week of October, a dramatic change of temperatures is expected from the beginning to the end of the week across central Minnesota. Temperatures for the beginning of the week look to be above normal to well above normal across much of Minnesota in general before a powerful cold front slices through the state on Thursday bringing our first shot of genuinely cold air for the season. 

Sunday Night

A few light rain showers have been tracking along the I-94 corridor this evening bringing on and off showers to parts of central Minnesota. Temperatures are in the mid 60s currently which is quite warm for this time of year. Low's tonight are only expected to drop into the mid 50s thanks to southeast surface flow advecting warm air northward ahead of a shortwave trough currently settled over Montana. 
There is a bit of lift in the area thanks to a stationary front just to our west, but showers in general should begin to taper off overnight. Many places will remain dry, especially further north and south of I-94. 

Monday

Monday looks to be much warmer than normal across central Minnesota. Most models show us reaching the mid 70s at least during the mid afternoon. Temperatures would likely warm even more thanks to southerly flow at the surface if it wasn't for the widespread cloud cover in the mid-upper levels that is expected tomorrow thanks to just enough instability in the atmosphere ahead of the shortwave trough to develop a somewhat persistent cloud deck. It looks like we should remain dry tomorrow thanks to low and mid level dry air keeping the lower levels fairly unsaturated. Tomorrow night we will continue to see a decent amount of clouds but should remain dry with lows once again in the mid 50s. 

Tuesday

Tuesday looks like a better bet for some precipitation across central Minnesota thanks to an approaching shortwave trough from the west. Temps will likely be slightly cooler with highs in the lower 70s due to more prominent low level cloud cover and the possibility for some light rain showers. Most models agree that precip chances will increase as the day goes on with the best chance of rain arriving late afternoon through Tuesday evening. Not all of Tuesday will be a washout though, in fact, there is a chance the rain completely holds off until Tuesday evening/night. Either way a decent chunk of central Minnesota will likely receive at least some rain Tuesday night with lows once again in the mid 50s.

Wednesday

Wednesday looks to be more of a wildcard at this point. The shortwave trough will pass through central Minnesota Tuesday night, so the first half of Wednesday will likely be influenced by the backside of said trough. In theory, this would mean more pleasant and calm weather across the area. However, a. potent Canadian trough is expected to swoop by to our north. This trough may bring some unsettled weather across central Minnesota especially Wednesday afternoon. Looks like there may be just enough instability to kick off a few weak thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon into the early evening. Wednesday night is looking mostly dry at this point but the surface flow will shift from southerly to northwesterly and will begin to advect colder air into our area later Wednesday Night.

Thursday 

Thursday is going to be a rude awakening to the fact that winter is not far off here in Minnesota. Temperatures aren't expected to warm out of the mid to upper 40s from Wednesday Night, in fact, temperatures might even cool down throughout the day as cold air advection induced by northwest flow on the backside of the Canadian trough. Skies should begin to clear thanks to large scale synoptic sinking air on the backside of the trough as well. Given such a dramatic swing in temperatures, we will likely also see some pretty breezy conditions with wind gusts nearing 30 mph potentially but given this is still 4 days out the details are still a bit hazy. Thursday night I expect to see clearing skies and plummeting temps into the lower 30s at least with winds dying down through the evening.

Friday

Friday will have more sunshine but temps will be quite chilly, barely making it out of the lower 40s in the afternoon. Friday Night will be chilly with lows in the upper 20s and generally clear skies. 

Saturday

Saturday looks fantastic sunshine wise, and temperatures will likely be rebounding to closer to normal with highs in the low to mid 50s.  

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