Busy week in the tropics

Active Atlantic Basin

by Aidan Cera 



The National Hurricane center is currently monitoring several disturbances out in the Atlantic this afternoon and have been for the last few days. The area with the most interest as of late has been Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L. Invest 95L is also churning in the Gulf of Mexico and has a 40% chance of developing in the next 2-5 days respectively. There is also a tropical wave located in the central Atlantic that may try to get going in the coming days but odds of this are only slight at this time. 

Potential Tropical Cyclone 02L



PTC 02L continues to struggle this evening under the influence of easterly shear and strong surface trade winds. Convection has also waned the last few hours as we approach the diurnal minimum. However, a surface circulation is evident on satellite imagery and based on surface observations out of Venezuela, therefore this is likely a tropical storm, but the NHC will likely not classify it as such until we see more persistent convection and they are able to get aircraft data to confirm a westerly wind is present near the surface. 

PTC 02L is tracking eastward this evening and is interacting with the coast of Venezuela. Typically land interaction is detrimental to the formation of tropical cyclones but in this case land interaction has helped PTC 02L tighten its surface vorticity core and has lead to the formation of the low level center mentioned previously. 

PTC 02L will continue westward tonight and could make landfall in northern Venezuela or skirt just off the coast. Either way, no significant changes are expected with this disturbance tonight. On Thursday, the story could change slightly. Shear should decrease along with strong trade winds as the disturbance tracks into the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Waters will be plenty warm, and there should be plenty of moisture in the region, so there really shouldn't be anything hold 02L back other than limited time over water. 

How much 02L strengthens once it forms will be determined by how organized its inner core is able to establish itself. Once trade winds relax this should come much easier for this system, but it looks like there is a relatively lower ceiling on this storm intensity wise due to the time crunch over water. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is indicating that a strong tropical storm is likely, and it is still possible that 02L may be at hurricane strength once it makes landfall in Nicaragua on Friday. 

  

Above is the NHC track...shows a tropical storm making landfall inn Nicaragua very late on Friday. After this, 02L is expected to maintain tropical characteristics and even strengthen into a hurricane once it tracks into the eastern Pacific basin.

Hurricane watches have been put into affect for the coastline of Nicaragua along with tropical storm watches for Costa Rica and parts of the Nicaragua coast. 

Invest 95L 


 Invest 95L continues to struggle under the influence of shear and dry air this evening. The NHC is giving this area a 40% chance of developing in the coming days before is makes landfall in Texas in the next day or two. Environmental conditions are not expected to become more favorable so it is hard to say if a brief tropical cyclone will come out of this but the chance remains nonetheless. Main impacts for Texas would be some much needed rain and some gusty winds possible, but nothing too impactful overall. 

Other Areas 

The NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave in the central Atlantic that had model support up until about a day ago but said support has really dropped off. Unfavorable environmental conditions should keep a lid on this system as it tracks toward the Caribbean Sea, mostly in the form of shear. Will continue to monitor this area nonetheless.

For more information on these systems visit:
















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