Atlantic waking up?

 Tropical Update 06/25/2022

Invest 94L

by Aidan Cera


The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring Invest 94L, a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic. This tropical wave has been tracked for several days now, and model consensus is that a tropical cyclone will likely come out of this wave at some point or another. When and where are heavily dependent on small scale and convective factors in the short term. There is a 30% chance of this wave developing a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days and a 60% in the next 5 days. 

Currently, there is no convection associated with 94L and the disturbance is in bad shape. Dry, stable air and possibly cooler sea surface temperatures are putting a lid on thunderstorm development. Ironically though, a weak low level center is evident on satellite indicating that all this system needs is some consistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical cyclone. 

One benefit of this convective demise is that it could allow the surface circulation to start firing convection assuming more dry air isn't ingested. The HWRF actually shows this taking place as soon as tonight. Also, there appears to be a decent cumulus field developing in the SE quadrant, which may be indicative of an imminent convective burst. 

Overall, the environment ahead of 94L is somewhat favorable in the short term. Conditions will likely become much more favorable once the wave reaches 50W due to an increase in sea surface temperatures and more instability. 

The GFS is much slower with development of this wave and doesn't close off a center till mid next week in the central Caribbean Sea. The ECMWF and the Canadian models are more vigorous with development in the short term alongside the HWRF and closer off a low early next week. 


The environment once the wave reaches the Caribbean Sea is quite anomalously favorable. Trades appear to be slower near the mouth of the Caribbean, which is not usual for this time of year. Also unusual is the positioning of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). The TUTT is displaced far more north than it usually is this time of year, which in this run of the ECMWF model is over the Bahamas. This will need to be watched closely because of it is further south than expected than 94L could encounter more wind shear further down the road. If the low is further north the environment could be even more favorable.  


There is model consensus that whatever comes out of this will remain on the weaker side and track across the Caribbean Sea and into next America in about a week. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system in the coming days. Impacts won't likely begin for another 3 days so there is still time for a lot to change.

The fact that we are monitoring a tropical wave in the central Atlantic this early in the season is quite intriguing. Usually when we see favorable conditions such as these, it is usually an indication that it is going to be an extremely active hurricane season. Just something to keep in mind.  


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