Saturday - Monday 05/06/23 Forecast

 Central Minnesota Saturday - Monday Forecast Update

Issued 05/06/2023

By Aidan Cera 




Temperatures have taken a dip today due to the cloud cover over central Minnesota and even a few scattered showers that have tracked through from the south in association with a stationary front. Temperatures are currently sitting at 55F in St. Cloud, 51F in Alexandria, 59F in Wilmar, 52F in Little Falls, and 60F closer to the Twin Cities metro area. 

Rest of Saturday/Saturday Night

This afternoon and evening still look to have the best chances of showers and thunderstorms across central Minnesota, but I think the chances have decreased slightly from earlier today given recent radar trends. 





I am currently seeing some shower and thunderstorm activity extending from Hudson, WI southeastward across Northfield, MN and down to Fairmount, MN. The area I am most focused on is southwestern MN from Canby, MN through Marshall, MN and into Worthington, MN. There are a few scattered showers developing in this area with satellite imagery showing some agitated low to mid level clouds increasing in coverage. This will likely be the focus point for thunderstorms that are able to develop as a surface low tracks through western Minnesota later this afternoon and into tonight. Another focus point is still off in South Dakota along the surface low. We may see another round of storms later this evening from this feature especially near Alexandria if conditions promote development. 
I am not completely sold that central Minnesota will see much of anything later this afternoon however given that most of our computer models indicated that storms would be firing in southwest MN by now and we have yet to see that happen. Models that did not show this activity also did not show us seeing any precipitation through tonight. I am not by any means writing off our shower and storm chances for this afternoon and this evening but I have chosen to lower the likelihood slightly for anything taking place given these trends.

Temperatures today are still expected to warm slightly to near 60F across much of central Minnesota, especially in locations where clouds clear out a bit. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely after 4-5pm CST across the area and should track out of the area by 10-11pm CST. I am not expecting any severe weather from these storm but a few high winds gusts or some small hail cannot be ruled out entirely.   

Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight tonight after any shower and thunderstorm activity exits the area. Temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to mid 50s across central Minnesota overnight tonight. Given the temperature and dew point profiles, dense fog is likely to develop after midnight, so any traveling late tonight should be done with caution.

Sunday

The low pressure that will track to our west tonight is still expected to have a major influence on our weather tomorrow. While skies and dense fog are expected to clear, I cannot rule some widely scattered showers and thunderstorms given the close proximity to the low and the temperature and dew point profiles we are expected to have tomorrow, especially during the morning hours. Highs will likely climb into the lower 70s with dew points in the mid 50s during the morning but dropping slightly to around 50F by late afternoon. 

A fair amount of clouds will likely stick around through tomorrow night. Lows are expected to drop into the lower 50s with dew points once again close to the expected lows, which may mean another night of fog development. A stray shower or thunderstorm remains possible.



Monday

Monday remains fairly uncertain. Models are off and on with showing some scattered thunderstorm activity across the area. The NWS Twin Cities is also back and forth with precipitation chances on Monday. Given the uncertainty, I will keep a mention for scattered showers and storms in the area for Monday, but do not feel confident making a concrete forecast at this time. As mentioned in my previous forecasts, we are in a highly variable atmospheric pattern where there is considerable unpredictability where things can change rather quickly, so it will be important to keep a frequent eye on the forecasts over the next few days. 
Highs on Monday will be dependent on convective patterns seen Sunday Night and Monday morning. Highs could range from lower 60s to lower 70s depending on any outflow boundaries that set up or if no pseudo cold fronts associated with convection forms at all. 

  















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