Weather Outlook 08/22-24

 Weather Outlook for 08/23-08/27

By Aidan Cera 




Fig 1. Weather Prediction Center surface chart 0000Z 08/23

Tuesday

Tuesday is going to be a near repeat of Monday, except slightly warmer with highs in the lower 80s across central Minnesota. Skies will be mostly sunny as high pressure continues to maintain control over our weather in the short term. As we head into Tuesday night, we will begin to feel the influence of a shortwave trough tracking southeast out of Canada. There does appear to be some vorticity advection associated with the first of a pair of weak shortwave troughs tracking from the northwest, so going to put a chance of light showers or perhaps a thunderstorm in for later on Tuesday Night. 

Wednesday

Wednesday we will see the first weak shortwave track eastward. Another shortwave will be making its way down from Canada later in the day Wednesday but a decent part of the day will be dry. In fact, many locations might stay entirely dry since the shortwave isn't that strong and there isn't much energy to work with. Still, going to keep a mention of showers and thunderstorms, more scattered in nature however. No severe weather is expected as of right now. 

Thursday

Unsettled weather should be over with by Thursday morning. Any leftover cloudiness should disperse by the afternoon as high pressure slides in from the west northwest, making for some sunshine with pleasant temperatures in the upper 70s across most of central Minnesota. 

Friday

Friday high pressure will dominate the weather overall with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching into the mid 70s. Friday night we begin to see the influence of a shortwave trough tracking eastward out of the Rocky Mountains. There doesn't appear to be too much forcing to go with Friday night but there may be just enough to spark some widely scattered showers. Will narrow down the details more as we approach the end of the week, as there is still a good deal of uncertainty on what will pan out and when.

Saturday

Majority of the global models are in agreement that a trough will continue eastward into the Dakota's on Saturday. This will put Minnesota in the front entrance region of the trough where upper level divergence is amplified fostering surface convergence. This will almost certainly lead to an increasing chance for precipitation across central Minnesota. How much precipitation remains rather unclear at this point, as models are going back and forth between a lot of rain and little rain at all. Will monitor closely as this weekend approached, but it appears the best chance for precipitation be Saturday evening into Saturday night. 















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