Volatile Day in Minnesota

A volatile day ahead

Severe storms expected across Minnesota for today




Today is going to be a volatile day for most of Minnesota. Environmental conditions are conducive for a major severe weather outbreak this afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather are expected this afternoon into this evening. 



The Storm Prediction center has issues a moderate risk of severe weather for central Minnesota. Below are the probabilities of each hazardous type of weather associated with today's storms. 


Above are the tornado probabilities. A 15% hatched risk of tornado is in place across much of central Minnesota. This means that not only are tornadoes a possibility, but large, long track tornadoes are expected as well. 


Above are the probabilities for hail. There isa 30% hatched risk for a decent chunk of Minnesota. Hail damage will be possible to roofs, vehicles, people, animals as hail stones could be 2+ inches in diameter. 


Above are the probabilities of seeing high winds. There is a 45% hatched risk over much of central Minnesota, indicated that damaging winds are quite likely. Gusts of up to or over 80 mph are possible with any storms that become more linear in nature. 

Analysis

A potent low pressure coupled with a powerful jet streak will continue to track northeastward across the Dakotas today. Minnesota is in the warm sector of this system with ample moisture. Strong divergence aloft is leading to a highly buoyant atmosphere were capping is already eroding away. Due to the strong nature of this low, helicity levels are extremely high at 300 + m^s/s^s. CAPE in some areas may approach 4,500 J/kg. Shear is also expected to be quite high, and hodographs are rather curved, indicating a favorable shear pattern for long track tornadoes in western and central Minnesota. 




In the sounding above we can see nearly an absolutely unstable environment with virtually little CIN and very high CAPE values for this afternoon. The hodograph on the upper right shows veering winds with height, indicating that rotating updrafts will be likely. Updrafts such as they are capable of creating very large hail and producing tornadoes depending on the storm mode. 

The HRRR shows a more discrete storm mode which heightens the possibility of tornadoes and large hail. The NAM 3K has a more linear storm mode and is less widespread with convection in the eastern part of Minnesota. The FV3 Hi-Res shows a more linear yet discrete mixture of storm types. Either way, the environment is expected to be conducive for tornadoes.


Above is the HRRR model output for this afternoons round of storms. The model shows a general line of discrete cells firing ahead of the cold front. Most other models shows a very similar scenario to this. 

These storms are expected to track across central Minnesota from 5pm to 8 pm, it will be a quick line but the hazards associated with these storms are substantial, so staying weather aware is crucial over the next several hours. 

Have a plan in place in case of tornadoes and have multiple sources of information to go off of. For more information, see the following website..


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

https://www.weather.gov/mpx/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/










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