Looking ahead to Memorial Day Weekend



A look to Memorial Day weekend




   Happy Wednesday everyone! With what many consider the unofficial start of summer fast approaching, the million dollar questions are if it will actually feel like summer and if the weather will cooperate for some of those long missed cookouts across Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Fortunately, it looks like much of Minnesota and Wisconsin will see at least a decent stretch of summer like warmth and sunshine this upcoming weekend, but some rather unsettled weather is also possible at times, especially in central Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. I want to emphasize that since this is still 4-5 days out there is respectable uncertainty in this forecast, this is not a set and stone guarantee as of now.


Saturday

Saturday looks to be mostly dry across Wisconsin and a decent portion of Minnesota. Both the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and European  (EURO) models, however, are indicating a wave of energy could try to make its way across Minnesota earlier in the day on Saturday. Models differ however in where exactly this precipitation will take place. 
The GFS is more conservative and shows a small round of precipitation tracking from western Minnesota northeastward clipping central Minnesota and tracking into northern Minnesota early Saturday morning.
The EURO on the other hand shows a more pronounced round of precipitation tracking west to east across a majority of Minnesota Saturday morning and dying out once it crosses into Wisconsin late Saturday morning into the early afternoon. 




Looking at the Global Forecasting System (GFS) computer model, a trough is expected to dig into the western United States from the Pacific Northwest early Saturday and slowly track eastward through the day, digging further south as it advects eastward. As Saturday progresses, a ridge of high pressure is expected to quickly track south of Minnesota and Wisconsin earlier in the day, giving away to a stronger westerly flow aloft as we head into Saturday afternoon.

As this ridge of high pressure advects eastward, a generally divergent flow will exist aloft over Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the first half of Saturday, resulting in more surface convergence and hence the possibility for some precipitation as mentioned above.  The European Model is in agreement with the overall set up of this ridge but is more pronounced with the divergent flow aloft in terms of coverage, which is likely why it is indicating a more widespread precipitation event. 

Either way, there is a chance for some rain Saturday morning across most of Minnesota at this point, however the second half of the day looks to be mostly dry for Minnesota and Wisconsin as a whole. 

Temperatures look to be quite warm in Minnesota on Saturday with highs in the lower 80s with more comfortable and cooler weather further southeast in Wisconsin, with highs in the upper 70s in the northwestern part of the state, mid 70s across central Wisconsin, and comfortable temps in the lower 70s in eastern Wisconsin. 

Overall Saturday looks to be on the nicer side of things for most of the western Great Lakes region! 



Sunday


The main story on Sunday looks to be a chance for severe thunderstorms across central Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a sizable chunk of Minnesota under a slight risk (15% chance) of severe thunderstorms.

As we head into the day Sunday, a more favorable upper level pattern for widespread precipitation chances will take hold as the day progresses across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.



The EURO shows the nose of the jet stream advecting eastward into Minnesota during the day on Sunday. This will be responsible for a more buoyant low level environment as air is diverging aloft along the nose of that jet stream wind speed increase. 




The GFS shows essentially the same thing with the jet stream building over North and South Dakota during the day on Sunday leading to more upper level divergence. Overall, this is a favorable pattern for the development of thunderstorms across Minnesota, some of which could possibly become severe due to the increase in wind speed with altitude over Minnesota.  It is far too soon to say exactly where storms will fire/track and what the greatest hazards with these storms will be. We will have a better idea in terms of set up for this system as we approach the weekend. For now, just something for interests in Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin to keep an eye on. Central and eastern Wisconsin look to be dry for Sunday. 


Temperatures are looking quite warm once again for Minnesota on Sunday. Warmer temperatures also appear likely for most of Wisconsin, especially away from Lake Michigan. Highs in the low to mid 80s across much of both states and more humidity as that front approaches from the west. Lakeshore counties along Lake Michigan and Lake Superior will likely be a few degrees cooler should a lake breeze develop, especially near cities such as Green Bay and Milwaukee. 

Overall the place to find the best outside weather appears to be eastern Wisconsin for both days this weekend, with low precipitation chances and pleasant temperatures in the 70s. It isn't looking like this weekend will be a wash out for Minnesota, there could very well be some quiet and pleasant periods across much of the state, but again, there is much uncertainty still so stay tuned for more information in the coming days. The same holds true for western Wisconsin, while central and eastern Wisconsin currently look dry throughout the entire weekend.

Have a great rest of your Wednesday everyone! I will post more information regarding this weekends weather in the next day or two. For more information visit the websites below! 


https://www.weather.gov/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/


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