Aidan's Weather Page

 Calm Week Ahead by Aidan Cera  A relatively calm week lies ahead for central Minnesota. After repeated rounds of severe weather this weekend curtesy of a negatively tilted shortwave trough. This trough has since moved eastward allowing for high pressure to build across the northern Plains that will last through most of this week.  Tuesday-Wednesday Sunny skies and highs nearing 80F are on tap for this Tuesday across central Minnesota. Winds will be relatively breezy out of the WNW at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight skies will remain clear with temperatures dropping into the low 60s or upper 50s. Skies remain clear Wednesday with slightly warmer temps in the low 80s for highs and a light westerly breeze. Wednesday will have clear skies and lows in the low 60s. Thursday-Friday Thursday looks dry across central Minnesota with plenty of sun. A shortwave trough will begin to push past to our north Thursday night. This trough will be well to our north so am not expecting but influence i...

  Weather Outlook for 08/23-08/27 By Aidan Cera  Fig 1. Weather Prediction Center surface chart 0000Z 08/23 Tuesday Tuesday is going to be a near repeat of Monday, except slightly warmer with highs in the lower 80s across central Minnesota. Skies will be mostly sunny as high pressure continues to maintain control over our weather in the short term. As we head into Tuesday night, we will begin to feel the influence of a shortwave trough tracking southeast out of Canada. There does appear to be some vorticity advection associated with the first of a pair of weak shortwave troughs tracking from the northwest, so going to put a chance of light showers or perhaps a thunderstorm in for later on Tuesday Night.  Wednesday Wednesday we will see the first weak shortwave track eastward. Another shortwave will be making its way down from Canada later in the day Wednesday but a decent part of the day will be dry. In fact, many locations might stay entirely dry since the shortwave isn'...

  2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook  August 3rd, 2022 By Aidan Cera  Fig 1. Tropical Storm Bonnie intensifying over the southwestern Caribbean Sea We are fast approaching the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. With the typical ramp up of activity only a week or two away, our attention is focusing on the Atlantic. This outlook takes into account current and past conditions across the Atlantic basin since the beginning of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, ranging from sea surface temperature anomalies to mid level atmospheric dynamics. Below is my quantitative rough estimate of how many named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes we could see for the season as a whole. Named Storms —------------------------------ 14-18 Hurricanes —-------------------------------- 7-9 Major Hurricanes —-------------------------- 3-5 ACE —--------------------------------------- 120-150 ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy  Three named storms have already formed, A...